The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) says while it was expected that pre-pandemic economic growth levels would be realised in the 2023/2024 fiscal year, which starts in April, the projections for the January to March quarter suggest recovery.
PIOJ Director General Dr. Wayne Henry said for fiscal year 2022/23, the economy is projected to grow within the range of four to six per cent.
The four to six per cent projected growth for this fiscal year, which ends March 31, is an upward revision from the projection of 3.5 to 4.5 per cent growth set last year.
At the same time, the local economy is projected to grow between one and three per cent for the 2023/24 fiscal year.
According to Dr. Henry, this reflects the faster than expected pace of recovery in the previous fiscal year, leading to an earlier than anticipated normalisation of output and a return to the long-term trend of growth.
But it also reflects a deterioration in the economic outlook for some of Jamaica's main trading partners, which has implications for local external demand.
GDP performance in fiscal year 2023/24 is anticipated to be driven by continued robust performance in stopover arrivals facilitated by increased room capacity as well as intensified marketing efforts.
Last month, the World Bank projected growth of two per cent for the 2023/24 fiscal year.
The PIOJ said growth in the fiscal year should also be supported by increased capacity utilisation in the mining and quarrying industry.
